Volume crime: Software that predicts a slump – THE WORLD

burglaries increase. But new technologies make the police hope: Computer programs are designed to help officials in the prognosis of Tatgeschehens and operational planning. “Predictive policing” is the name of this coming from the US and UK trend which now comes to Germany. Critics, however, are alarmed: They fear for data protection

The most advanced in Germany is the development in Bavaria.. There, Interior Minister Joachim Herrmann (CSU) decided after a successful test with the forecasting software Precobs at two police stations to provide the program or a comparable product permanently. “In the forecast areas, we had fewer domestic burglaries and more offenders arrests,” said Herrmann.

If programs like Precobs is mentioned, comparisons of the science are like -Fiction short story classics “Minority Report” drawn. It is about a police force that using psychics murders foresees and future perpetrators attracts preventively without trial forever from circulation.

pattern on occasion perpetrators difficult

But the comparison limps, stressed the sociologist Thomas Schweer, co-founder of the Institute for pattern-based forecasting technique (IfmPT) in Oberhausen, the Precobs has developed. “It’s all about pattern recognition in volume crime. For the prediction of felony Precobs is not suitable.”

Even the deeds unorganized opportunity offender can miss recurring patterns that could recognize in databases and can be used for forecasting purposes. Also Precobs is only suitable for certain, namely burglaries committed by professionals. Close candidates also similar mounted offenses, such as organized car thefts or street robberies

The software is based on a space occupied by researches basic hypothesis:. Professionals Choose target areas carefully , criteria such as appropriate evacuation routes play an important role in its planning. If they are successful, they try there likely to recur. “Near Repeat” experts call this theory.

strip in vulnerable neighborhoods or streets

Who knows, can draw from the internal use of police reports its conclusions. Precops analyze daily reports the situation and vulnerable quarters or streets. The team leader can then there increasingly use strips to deter or put officers in wait.

Other provinces are very interested. The North Rhine-Westphalian State Office of Criminal Investigation (LKA) is testing in its own pilot project, a program of the US computer giant IBM, results should be available next year. Here, too, it comes to break-ins, unlike Precobs but should also publicly available additional data sets incorporated with.

Close candidates about weather information, event dates or information on Infra – and development structure of a region, explains project manager Joachim Eschemann. In all of this it go ultimately to a question: “Can we with the program of large, very different data sets to filter out correlations and predict on this basis the development of crime risks?” The question of whether the works at the end, he considers not yet clarified.

“declaration of war on civil liberties and privacy”

Critical observers of the security authorities are alarmed. Great is their concern that such programs could be just the beginning and let the desire arise sometime instead anonymous patterns also real people to take in the view.

The Left expert Andrej Hunko calls them simply a “declaration of war on civil liberties and privacy”. First, although no personal data would be processed, stressed the parliamentarian. “From the US and UK but we do know that such systems be drilled later and then decide to access personal information.”

Last year about testing Londoners Police already have a program that would calculate the probability that gang members commit acts of violence again. It merged the data of internal reporting systems and created from individual risk ratings. In this country, that would be simply illegal, also emphasize the critics. But concern remains. “Minority Report” sends his regards.

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