Munich – burglars it will in future have severe Munich. The police tested from mid-October the software “Precobs” that spits out where in the city the next drops are expected.
© Klaus Haag
Two police officers: Links Günter Okon, Head of Analysis Department at LKA, right “Precob” laptop.
“Precobs”, that sounds like science fiction. In fact, the developers were inspired in the naming of the sci-fi thriller “Minority Report” (with Tom Cruise). You have so-called “Precogs” thanks to their clairvoyant abilities prevent murders.
predict murders that keeps Günter Okon, head of the analysis department of the Bavarian State Office of Criminal Investigation (LKA), in reality impossible. In burglaries that’s a bit different. The program “Precobs” to make predictions of where and when they can expect in the urban area in the near future with residential burglary. From 13 October, the Munich Police Headquarters tests the software
Okon is convinced of the success of the program. “I assume that the number of burglaries is falling.” With the proverbial view into the crystal ball predictions have little to do. Günter Okon sufficient for this in his office near the Ostbahnhof a laptop. The software is based on statistical data and uses complex algorithms. Mathematics so. The underlying concept is called “Predictive Policing”. The police attempted from the current position to derive predictions for the future
In the United States, which is already standard. According to a recent poll put 70 percent of the police departments there “Predictive Policing” one. The Zurich police has been tested in a six-month pilot phase “Precobs”, which was developed by a software company Oberhausen. The numbers are impressive. In areas that were monitored with “Precobs”, the number of burglaries, according to Okon went back to 34 percent. In addition, the detection rate has increased.
The burglary is suitable for statistical predictions, because a professional burglar going methodically and often very rational. What kind of houses backed up? Is there a good escape route? “The considering exactly where and why it breaks, and how he goes about it,” said Okon. This becomes “Precobs” advantage. Had a burglar in an area of success, it comes with a certain probability in the near future back
In “Precobs” are all burglaries the past seven years detected. The LKA has performed in the past few months with the old data test runs. To see the latest crimes are re-fed daily. The program comes out with comparatively few data: date, place, trial or completed action, loot. In addition the commission of way, so if pried a window or a door was broken.
Okon demonstrates the software using the example of a burglary in an apartment building on the Ungererstraße. The case is supplied, the program sounds an alarm, make it on the map screen on Okons several red tiles, approximately around Dietlindenstrasse and at the Alte Heide. Each tile covers an area of 250 to 250 meters. “In these areas is expected in the next seven days with follow-crimes,” said Okon. “So it would be useful here to go patrol or deploy civilian personnel.” Why exactly, remains secret of the program. Okon leads but proud of, that there was in fact three other burglaries in the eingekachelten areas in the following days.
A omnipotence of the computer not afraid Okon. “This is not a black box, we blindly follow. At the end still decided by a man. “In Munich police headquarters an operator to morning centrally assess the situation. He then informed the concerned inspections, where, according to “Precobs” is likely to slump. The officials, which admits Okon, still characterized by skepticism. Who does like to dictate his work from a computer? “But I hope that the success ultimately speaks for itself,” says Okon.
criticism from privacy advocates Okon is left over. “We do not work with personal data, which are all anonymous case data.” In U.S. cities and London, it looks different. Including information on suspects, license plate or stock data is integrated in the algorithm. The Bavarian Data Protection Commissioner Thomas Petri has requested information from the Home Office to “Precobs”. But he holds back with criticism. “. Unless the data is not personally identifiable, the program is data protection law not directly relevant” The devil lies, however, often in detail
Until the end of March 2015 the test run go, which is carried out in parallel in Middle Franconia, to compare urban centers to rural areas. The cost Günter Okon will not comment. According to the journal “Criminology” these are among the popular programs around 100,000 euros. Go the number of burglaries in Munich similar back as in Zurich, the Free State is expected to live with that.
Angelo Rychel
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