The computer-based prediction model “Precobs” will be tried in Bavaria. In Switzerland, the hit rate of the predictions was 80 percent. The number of burglaries decreased by 30 percent. 2015 are also tested in NRW.
It’s a scenario that burglars probably can doubt their career choice: you’re planning a theft, but proceed to design and run there the police in his arms. And not by chance, but because of a computer system has calculated the probable crime scene. So repeatedly happened in Munich, Basel and Zurich, wherever the software “Precobs” is used. “Precobs” is an abbreviation for “Pre-Crime-surveillance system” and roughly translated means the prognosis of crime, especially burglaries. What sounds like something from a science fiction film is already being tested in everyday life. “The high success rate shows that our system works,” says Michael Schweer, associate of the Institute for pattern-based prediction methods (IfmPt) in Oberhausen, the “Precobs” has developed.
In fact, the numbers hear sound promising. In the cities previously used is the hit rate of the predictions of “Precobs” according Schweer at 80 percent, the number of offenses has decreased in Basel and Zurich by one-third, the arrest rate has doubled. “The preventive policing due to the forecasts have criminal priority areas resolved,” says Schweer. In the two Swiss cities, the police decided to permanently install the “Precobs” system. The authorities in NRW want to test the computer-based predictions. From October 2015 to September 2016, the project is terminated. Will be tested the system in Duisburg and Cologne.
The police union (GdP) had “Precobs” considered rather suspiciously few months ago, but now welcomes the project. “At that time we had assumed that the software on a variety of critical data accesses,” said GdP state chairman Arnold Plickert. “But this has put into perspective.” To take into account “Precobs” no personal data, but uses only data time of the crime, the crime scene, and a prey to approach the burglars. “If you want to put it dramatically perpetrators and victims do not care,” said Schweer
The objective is to Pattern Recognition
It comes from. records that go back up to ten years to generate patterns. Burglars like to return back to the place where they were successful, and where, for example, the detection risk is low. “In this repeat offenders, mostly professionals and traveling bands, we aim,” says Schweer. “Rather, born out of the situation-related crime can, in contrast, does not predict serious.” The patterns make it possible to identify priorities and there to increase the police presence not only, but also specifically for the “Precobs” respect -Vorgaben about foreign flag. For example, a car could be stopped in Munich, in the trunk, the officers found burglary tools.
The German software thus differs fundamentally from similar prediction systems in the United States. “There flowing far more personal data from the crime statistics unfiltered, correspondingly low predictive accuracy,” says Schweer. The strength of “Precobs” lies precisely in the targeted acquisition. Nothing could be automated, trained operators also analyze forecasts and decide on police action. This efficient use of personnel is an important argument for the forecasting software for the GdP state chairman Plickert. “In our human resources we rely on technical support,” says Plickert. Currently, the police were only able to ad hoc measures. This was reflected by some in the detection rate of burglaries – which currently lies at around 15 percent
It is still unclear whether the Oberhausen software or a competitor’s product in NRW is in the testing phase.. Schweer currently do not even know if he wants to participate in the tender. For in NRW and weather data or the use of foreign credit cards will be incorporated with. “But that moves data protection law in a border area and contradicts our fast, targeted forecast,” says Schweer. Before he put the reputation of its software on the line, he renounce NRW. For now subject also several international requests for “Precobs” before – including from Italy, Turkey and Japan
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