Karlsruhe (Corina Bohner) – A crime predict before it happens? What so far looks like a vision of the future of science fiction films, will now be a reality. In Karlsruhe is since today the new intrusion software “Precobs” used. In the next six months they will be used to combat burglaries.
Last Friday gave Interior Minister Reinhold Gall Baden-Württemberg launched to test the forecasting software. They will come in the next six months, first in Stuttgart and Karlsruhe used.
The “prediction program for domestic burglary” as the “Precobs” software is called in German, is another measure to reduce the number of to reduce burglaries in the area. Initial successes have already been recorded by a dedicated organizational unit BAO property (“Special Construction Agency”). The clearance rate for burglaries is currently at 19 percent, according to police (2014: 13 percent) – by the end of the year it should be 20 percent. Total wants to reduce the number of burglaries in 2015 in the area of the police headquarters in Karlsruhe to ten percent.
Precob sounds an alarm and displays potential crime scene
Here is the new software help that since Monday, November 2, officially “on duty” is. Based on static data spits “Precobs” an alarm if legal criteria are met for a professional burglar series and a possible next scene is recognized. The software is provided for the next six months the police headquarters in Karlsruhe and Stuttgart from Landeskriminalamt free of charge.
In addition to a basic database on the dips in the last five years, the record is updated three times a day. Using various constituent elements of the software calculates an operational area of several hundred meters, in which very shortly be done with the highest probability of the next break-in.
Precobs is “no glass ball”
This statistical function was previously done manually by police officers – personnel resources should now be released by the new software. “Precobs facilitates the work solely by the mass of the offenses that must be evaluated,” said Detective Chief Marcel Marquedant which the software will apply in future. Together with other operators, he has access to the Precobs data. Your privacy is guaranteed, assured Deputy Chief Constable Karl-Heinz Ruff.
A reduction of officials means the software is not. “We have no glass ball purchased,” said Alexander Kriminaloberrat Ebert, director of the BAO property, in a press conference on Monday, “police work is still needed.” The concrete added value of the software can be seen at the police station in the substantial shortening of the reaction time and the targeted control of the police officers.
evaluation is based on “near repeat” theory
is behind the software a sociological theory and is based on the behavioral patterns of people: The “Near repeat Prediction Method” states that offenders returning to the vicinity of the crime scene. For residential burglary takes to wear the phenomenon, according to police, that a small number of offenders committing a relatively large number of burglaries. “The regions are processed literally,” says Ebert. Episode deeds will in future be prevented through targeted strip and search measures in the areas identified by Precob.
The extent to which the population is involved in Precob results, is not fixed yet. Conceivable are the use of leaflets as a preventive measure for the police. In Switzerland, where the software in addition to Bayern already came into use, you have done the first experiments with mobile phone alarms, so Ebert, which have, however, done more to a reduction rather than an increase in the sense of security.
Whether the tool satisfaction of all stakeholders can help, you’ll see, as President Günther Freisleben. Is scientifically the Precobs software from the Max Planck Institute in Freiberg, this is after six months of testing, the results assessed. The police is convinced, even without the results of the software: “I am very confident that we will achieve a lot,” said Freisleben. Kriminaloberrat Ebert adds: “I am convinced that the risk of detection for perpetrators by the software is significantly increased.”
number of burglaries has declined
The in spring 2014 BAO property comprises around 50 officials, which are primarily active in the field burglary crime. In addition two Einsatzgruppen came from the Ministry of Interior, with a total of 20 people, which can support the unit depending on the application layer. Now wants to continue to improve at the police headquarters in Karlsruhe
Visible results, the BAO property already boast:. Lag the clear-up rate in 2014 was still around 13 percent, it is, according to senior Kriminaldirektor Karl-Heinz Ruff currently at 19 percent. Added to manifest changes in the offender structures: Had you in the past, mostly problem with gangs from Eastern Europe, the majority of suspects will now be of German origin, so Ruff, while if they were both to a gang and to drug-related crime. Despite the annual increase in the number of cases during the winter time, the police will reach 20 percent clearance rate for burglaries by the end of
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