Maybe it needed a man like Thomas Schweer, so that the police again cherishes hope. A gaunt types in Chucks sneakers and Adidas sweater who has nothing to do at first sight as to the world of stiff uniforms and strict hierarchies. An experienced social scientist who had a brilliant idea, perhaps.
For years the number of burglaries in Germany climbs upward. Thieves pry on doors and windows, clawing money and jewelry. The criminals steal the victims usually but something far more valuable: namely the sense of security and peace of mind in your own home. There are quite a few people who are left distraught after a break.
In Germany, in 2014 as many burglaries in 15 years were no longer displayed. This balance sheet presented before federal and state governments recently. The anger among citizens is great for years. Every three minutes there is a break in Germany. And the clear-up rate is abysmally low. However, neither the policy nor the competent police authorities in the countries have so far managed to break the trend. Perhaps the successful but now using the man from the Ruhr area.
A few years ago had the 54- years of an idea: using the software he wanted to predict in which areas of the likelihood of a break-in is at its highest. Meanwhile, running the program, and the results are promising. But in fact it is in the invention Schweers to those silver bullet, speak of the many already? The developer anyway appeases: “This is pure mathematics with a look into the crystal ball that has nothing to do..”
If you with it Thomas Schweer appointment in Oberhausen, he sends an address of a nondescript office building with brick, next to a supermarket. There is the office. Whirring Server are not in that house but. The heart of the operation is in fact a bit farther away: in an old building, with a garden, kitchen and many notes on the walls for ideas. Of told Schweer only. Journalists are not allowed in the company headquarters. Thus the secrets secret and the data used will remain safe.
The same patterns appear again and again
Review : Around the turn of the millennium around Schweer is a normal scientist at the beginning of his career. He specializes in criminology, the theory of the crime. For a few years he went for his studies with the Duisburg police patrol. What interests him mainly as police deal with ethnic marginalized groups. Nothing much happened, according to him, but on these tours. “This is unlike a Schimanski-, Tatort ‘” said Schweer. But it is precisely that brings him an idea: You should be able to tell the police: “You are driving now not clockwise, but turn onto to the right because it is worth..”
Schweer reading after close, such as space and related crimes, according to research. He states: In certain offenses often hear the same pattern. “When a burglary happens with certain characteristics, there are spatial and temporal proximity often a Sequence budget,” he explains. Professional thieves about to leave at the scene rarely a big mess. For them, every second is precious. To scan for valuables. Then they are gone. Often they come back but – and hit a few hundred meters to walk, in that very neighborhood that they have already scouted. Schweer about how you could use this knowledge for police work.
The police initially shake his head when they hear from Schweers theory. But then, so says the developer, notice them due to the display of the population that his advice go in the right direction. With friends who are familiar with computers, he founds the Institute of pattern-based forecasting technique and program a corresponding software. At first he baptizing them Precogs. The name comes from Steven Spielberg’s science-fiction film “Minority Report”. Clairvoyant who Precogs, it can predict murders, and people can be arrested even before they become perpetrators. Later Schweer change the name to Precobs (Pre Crime Observation System).
In the US, the predictive policing, the Predictive Policing because for years topic. In some places there use the information come together in real time. Since computers can store a lot of data and evaluate this new form of manhunt is obvious.
Schweers software also works with historical data and is not a mathematical statistical template that can be applied to other areas as the fight against crime. The program does not require any personal data and only needs four characteristics that need to be fed after a burglary. Place, time of the crime, prey and approach the offender
Even repeat offenders thanks to the program nabbed
In Germany Schweer initially finds no donors for a trial period. Finally, the City of Zurich will start a trial. It’s fast enthusiastic: The number of burglaries is decreasing overall by 14 percent. In those urban areas where enough people live, so that the software has a basis for evaluating, there is even a decrease of 30 percent.
Meanwhile the works program in Switzerland in continuous operation. Every morning at nine clock feed the computer with the police crime statistics of the past day. The program adds to the numbers of recent years, trying to recognize patterns – and only a few minutes later, the computer says he has discovered burglaries of precisely the sort that trigger an alarm
then a circle in the urban area appears on the screen. This radius of a few hundred meters is a slump in the next seven days with a high probability to happen, the application estimates. The police then have the opportunity to go there more often on patrol. Quenching, is the motto. Alternatively, the head of operations sends a search party in the area. Several times, so Schweer, investigators have nabbed even repeat offenders.
Other types of crime should be recorded
In autumn launched the state of Bavaria in Munich and in Mittelfranken a test run. When Landeskriminalamt one was enthusiastic. The final result will Interior Minister Joachim Herrmann (CSU), although still present. But the numbers that have already leaked sound good: In the capital there should have been much less break-ins, a decline of more than 30 percent is talk. And, although in 2014 in Bavaria a total of the number of burglaries has increased by almost 30 percent. It may therefore well be that Bavaria, the experiment soon integrated in everyday police work.
a fixed price for the software, there is not the way. The depends for example on the size of the observation area. In detail Schweer do not want to talk about it. In a city like Munich but one deck with an estimate of about 100,000 Euro purchase price not bad – then this is yet to come, the customer service is in operation. Since Zurich relies on the software, he can live with his idea, says Thomas Schweer. Now he wants to expand.
the algorithms from Oberhausen soon be no longer predict burglaries but also car thefts and other offenses. Again, the numbers are high, the clearance rate low, and there are repeat offenders. Meanwhile, several states have knocked and are interested in the program. Much remains to countries probably not desired. After all, most other measures against burglars have so far fizzled almost inconsequential.
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