Predictive Policing Software probability of burglaries calculate – Germany radio

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Peter Welchering in conversation with colleague Lennart Pomerania

Before perpetrators at the scene, which would like the police. And it puts a software. The called Predictive Policing software, and they can astonishingly accurate as forecasting burglaries or other crimes

Lennart Pomerania. Where is because such predictive policing software used Peter Welchering

Peter Welchering: Worldwide, here in Germany in Nuremberg and Munich. In North Rhine-Westphalia and in Berlin they will be introduced. It is used as well as in Los Angeles, Memphis, London and Zurich

Pomerania. As predicted this software for crime, for example burglaries

Welchering: With the derivation of probabilities. This is a classic big data analysis combined with a geographic information system. Since so-called inferences are thus calculated probability pattern. And then give the forecast of the probability in a given residential area is likely to slump, so the police then there can increasingly patrolling

Pomerania. What data needs the software for Predictive Policing for this probability calculation

What ring? This is different. In so-called Precobs trial in Munich are the only so-called police operation data, so where was broken? What was stolen? Which crime scene were seized? How can the sequence of events can be reconstructed. Los Angeles and Memphis take added even weather data, SMS or calls from mobile phones with prepaid card or foreign mobile phones, license plates of other states or even foreign license plate and other communication data. This is controversial. For profiles on this data base can be formed. And then there is only a small step to calculate the probability, when a single person the probability commits an offense

Pomerania. as a scenario like How realistic because then that people are in Steven Spielberg’s film Minority Report arrested precaution

What ring? This is discussed repeatedly since the seventies in the criminological literature and among managers of the police, in Europe and in the United States. And since I have read in this context, the police could have a “socio-sanitary task” here, I arge concerns here. As long as our system of governance of checks and balances works, there will not be these preventive arrests. But many forces want to restrict these checks and balances

Pomerania. How successful the software has been used to date? Accounts offenses be prevented

What ring? This is also controversial. In Los Angeles there was hotly debated incorrect bets. The police drove increases in road patrol, had calculated an increased likelihood of burglary Predpol. At the same time has been broken into areas where no police patrols were deployed because Predpol had calculated here an extremely low probability. Therefore, the strips were here even been withdrawn

Pomerania. because Predpol computer police are hacked

What ring? The suspect has actually expressed, is especially known that police have servers in the United States severe security issues. But there is also another argument. Organised crime has recreated the inference of Predpol software, the software methodology reconstructed. And so they did, from which data and data frequencies Predpol derives which probabilities. They then have exactly for a particular residential area, these data especially communication metadata generated from which Predpol then derives a high probability of break-ins. This meant that from other quiet areas, with little communication metadata forces were withdrawn. Who were sent to the areas with high burglary probabilities. Then the criminals were able to dispel flats unhurriedly in so-called quiet areas

Pomerania. With this predictive software also calculates forecasts for other offenses

? Welchering: not to Precobs experiments in Munich and Nuremberg. In LA band armed conflicts. The software company Palantir has developed a whistleblower strategy software for the US government, is designed to prevent the Wikileaks publications. Which serves as a predictive policing software because it uses the same big data analysis. And this software calculates when an employee would the probability to pass as an authority internal documents to the media. The Egyptian government is currently developing a pilot project in order to predict spontaneous demonstrations and localized protests can. This too is Predictive Policing.